Hungarian elections analysis¶

import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (14, 7)

df_affiliation = pd.read_csv("affiliation.csv")

df_nominating_organization = pd.read_csv("nominating_organization.csv")

df_election = pd.read_csv("election.csv")

df_district_hierarchy = pd.read_csv("district_hierarchy.csv")

df_geographical_unit = pd.read_csv("geographical_unit.csv")

df_election_precinct = pd.read_csv("election_precinct.csv")

df_vote_record = pd.read_csv("vote_record.csv")

party_level_df = df_vote_record.merge(df_affiliation).merge(df_election_precinct)

# only first rounds, non individual
relevant_elections = df_election.loc[
    lambda df: ~df["is_individual"] & df["election_id"].str.endswith("1")
]

# parties that have received over 10% of the votes in 3 different election
parties_for_elections = (
    party_level_df.pivot_table(
        index="party", columns="election_id", values="vote_count", aggfunc="sum"
    )
    .loc[:, relevant_elections["election_id"]]
    .fillna(0)
)

total_votes_by_election = df_vote_record.merge(df_election_precinct).groupby("election_id")["vote_count"].sum()

(
    parties_for_elections.loc[
        lambda df: (df / total_votes_by_election[df.columns] > 0.03).sum(axis=1) > 2
    ]
    .rename(columns=relevant_elections.set_index("election_id")["start_date"].to_dict())
    .astype(int)
    .T.style.background_gradient(
        axis=None,
    )
    .set_caption('Number of votes gained by political parties in Hungarian elections')
)

Number of votes gained by political parties in Hungarian elections
party	DK	FIDESZ	FKGP	JOBBIK	KDNP	LMP	MDF	MSZP	PM	SZDSZ
election_id
2018-04-08	306853	2607899	0	1090331	2607899	399507	0	680680	680680	0
2010-04-11	0	2706282	0	855263	2706282	383173	135357	990253	0	0
2006-04-09	0	2272962	822	116463	2272962	0	271881	2336684	0	350196
1998-05-10	0	1263504	617713	0	113710	0	136180	1445794	0	350871
2014-04-06	1287384	2142112	7956	1015570	2142112	265220	0	1287384	1287384	0
1994-05-08	0	378951	476262	0	378948	0	633112	1781707	0	1065316
2022-04-03	1930740	2803778	0	1930740	2803778	1930740	0	1930740	1930740	0
2002-04-07	0	2306761	38567	0	0	0	2306761	2361962	0	310899
1990-03-25	0	439257	576116	0	316402	0	1213501	533832	0	1049524

(
    parties_for_elections.pipe(
        lambda df: (df / total_votes_by_election[df.columns])
    ).loc[lambda df: (df > 0.03).sum(axis=1) > 2]
    .rename(columns=relevant_elections.set_index("election_id")["start_date"].to_dict())
    .T.style.background_gradient(
        axis=None,
    )
    .set_caption('Percentage of votes gained by political parties in Hungarian elections')
)

Percentage of votes gained by political parties in Hungarian elections
party	DK	FIDESZ	FKGP	JOBBIK	KDNP	LMP	MDF	MSZP	PM	SZDSZ
election_id
2018-04-08	0.056236	0.477945	0.000000	0.199823	0.477945	0.073217	0.000000	0.124747	0.124747	0.000000
2010-04-11	0.000000	0.527795	0.000000	0.166798	0.527795	0.074729	0.026398	0.193125	0.000000	0.000000
2006-04-09	0.000000	0.421047	0.000152	0.021574	0.421047	0.000000	0.050364	0.432851	0.000000	0.064871
1998-05-10	0.000000	0.282987	0.138349	0.000000	0.025468	0.000000	0.030500	0.323814	0.000000	0.078584
2014-04-06	0.263551	0.438529	0.001629	0.207905	0.438529	0.054295	0.000000	0.263551	0.263551	0.000000
1994-05-08	0.000000	0.070447	0.088537	0.000000	0.070446	0.000000	0.117695	0.331218	0.000000	0.198041
2022-04-03	0.361846	0.525465	0.000000	0.361846	0.525465	0.361846	0.000000	0.361846	0.361846	0.000000
2002-04-07	0.000000	0.411576	0.006881	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.411576	0.421425	0.000000	0.055471
1990-03-25	0.000000	0.089824	0.117810	0.000000	0.064701	0.000000	0.248149	0.109164	0.000000	0.214618

Data Catalog

Hungarian elections analysis

Hungarian elections analysis¶